Olive Oil 2026/27 Season: Early Signals on Price and Supply

Tunisia's 2025/26 olive oil campaign is closing out at record export volumes just as the first readings on the 2026/27 season start filtering in from Spain and Italy — and they don't all point the same way. No official body has published a production estimate for the new campaign yet: at this point in the year, what circulates is agronomic signals and trade chatter, not hard numbers. Here's what those signals actually say, what they don't, and how a professional buyer should use them before quotes start moving.

Tunisia's 2025/26 campaign closes at a record

Figures from Tunisia's national agriculture observatory, Onagri, confirm just how large the outgoing campaign has been. Over the first nine months of the 2025/26 season, Tunisia exported 368,000 tonnes of olive oil, up 55.3% from 236,900 tonnes over the same period a year earlier. Export revenue followed, reaching 4,605.3 million dinars (+44.4%) — a slower rise than volume, confirming that average export prices have eased from the shortage-era peaks of a few years back.

The breakdown by segment matters for anyone selling bulk or packaged oil. Bulk still dominates at 86% of exported volume, but packaged exports are growing faster: 51,500 tonnes, up 50.8%, now 14% of the total. Extra virgin accounts for 83.6% of exported volume, confirming Tunisia is shipping mostly top-grade oil rather than lampante or refined. On destinations, the EU absorbs 57.1% of volume — Spain 32.1%, Italy 20% — with North America at 24%, Asia at 11.3% and Africa at 3.8%.

Domestic Tunisian pricing tells a similar normalization story: 13.68 dinars/kg in June 2026 (+3.1% year on year), then 13.16 dinars/kg in July (+1.4% year on year) — a mild sequential softening after the tight levels of 2023/24, even as prices remain above their long-term average.

What the early 2026/27 signals say — and don't say yet

By late August, Mediterranean olive groves are still in fruit-set and sizing stage; reliable first estimates — Spanish, French or Tunisian — traditionally only arrive from autumn onward, once harvest is under way. What trade press is reporting for now are early agronomic indicators, best read as signals rather than a production number.

Origin	2026/27 signal	Key factor to watch	2025/26 reference
Spain	Mixed: favourable winter rainfall and reservoir levels, but preliminary flowering data pointing to lower fertility in some areas	Fruit-set confirmation; pace of sales already made against the 2025/26 crop	≈ 1.4 Mt
Italy	Structurally tight: thin margins, volatility flagged by the trade	Domestic output (250,000-300,000 t) well below demand (≈ 550,000 t) and export commitments (≈ 400,000 t)	Structural deficit, import-dependent
Tunisia	Favourable: flowering described as promising, large carryover stock after an abundant campaign	Olive fruit fly pressure and late-cycle weather risk	450,000-500,000 t (IOC and industry estimates)

The Spanish flag is worth reading carefully rather than amplifying. Spanish producer association OliveA warned in May 2026 that sales were running unusually fast — close to 880,000 tonnes already sold in seven months, roughly 70% of the 2025/26 crop — a sign that carryover stock is thinning quickly ahead of new-crop oil. Combined with uneven flowering signals across regions, that pace can tighten the market even if Spain's final volume comes in reasonably. Tunisia, by contrast, enters the new season from a position of strength: sizeable carryover stock, flowering described as promising, and a mill network that has just proven it can absorb an abundant harvest.

Italy is a third, different case: a structural gap rather than a one-season signal. Domestic output capped around 250,000-300,000 tonnes covers neither domestic demand (≈ 550,000 tonnes) nor the country's export commitments (≈ 400,000 tonnes); the shortfall is bridged every year with imported virgin and refined oil, an increasing share of it Tunisian — Italy is already Tunisia's second-largest EU destination at 20% of export volume. That imbalance doesn't hinge on any single Spanish flowering outcome; it underpins Mediterranean bulk demand regardless of how the season plays out.

The price scenario for autumn 2026

After easing from the shortage-era peaks, several market watchers flag a risk of European prices turning higher again from autumn 2026, tied to the heatwaves, drought and wildfires that hit several Mediterranean growing regions this summer. At this stage that's a scenario, not a certainty: it will hinge mainly on Spain's final yield, but also on Italy, Greece, Portugal and Tunisia. The International Olive Council and the European Commission's market observatory will publish their first hard readings on the new campaign from November — that's the checkpoint that turns today's agronomic signals into an actionable buying decision.

What this means for bulk buyers

Three practical points follow for anyone buying Tunisian bulk olive oil right now.

The current window still favours buyers. Between remaining Tunisian carryover stock and new-crop oil due from November, supply out of Tunisia isn't tight — unlike the Spanish signal. This is the moment to secure volume before autumn estimates, if they confirm a weaker European crop, start pulling the whole Mediterranean price pyramid upward; Tunisia is never fully decoupled from Spain's tempo.

Split commitments rather than betting on one entry point. Part of the annual volume can be contracted now against carryover stock or the first new-crop lots, with the balance placed once November's trends are confirmed. That staged approach limits exposure to an isolated price spike in either direction. Our article on the 2025/26 campaign and how seasonal pricing forms breaks down that mechanism.

Book freight ahead of the campaign peak. November-December brings together Tunisia's milling peak and container/flexitank demand pulled from across the Mediterranean — slots get booked in advance, not the week of loading. We cover that calendar in our article on ocean freight and booking ahead of the campaign.

Check the age and the COA of carryover stock. A virgin oil from early in the 2025/26 season is now approaching a year in storage: it remains perfectly usable if held in nitrogen-blanketed stainless tanks, but its analytical profile — peroxide, polyphenols, sensory freshness — is no longer that of new-crop oil. A COA dated to the actual lot, not just the campaign, is what separates well-kept carryover from oil that has started to fade.

North American buyers should read the same signals through their own lens. At 24% of Tunisian export volume, the United States and Canada are already Tunisia's second-largest destination after the EU, and that share has been rising as buyers diversify away from a Spanish-dominated supply base. A tighter European picture this autumn would likely reinforce that shift rather than reverse it, since North American demand competes for the same Tunisian pool as the EU — one more reason to have volume booked before the market reprices on confirmed European numbers, rather than after.

The Spanish signal, even a preliminary one, also underlines a structural point: global olive oil output stays concentrated in a handful of countries sharing the same Mediterranean climate. Our guide on diversifying sourcing against climate risk covers how to spread origins and storage formats so a single season's weather doesn't set your supply plan.

The calendar to watch through January 2027

Three milestones will shape how the new campaign reads: fruit-set confirmation across the Mediterranean in late September, first field reports from Andalusia and from Sfax and the Sahel as harvest starts in October-November, then the first hard estimates from the IOC and national observatories from November-December — coinciding with Tunisia's milling peak. That last window is what turns today's agronomic signals into production figures a contract can actually be built on.

Lock in volume before the autumn picture clarifies

Virginia qualifies your requirement within 24 business hours and quotes both carryover and new-crop lots, backed by a lot-specific COA and tasting — without waiting for November's estimates to close the current window. Set out your lifting schedule and logistics format in a quote request, or request samples to validate the profile before committing volume on this campaign.